Early Mornings and Dietary Challenges

The good news, I’m still getting up every morning at 5:20 a.m. to hit the elliptical and it feels great.  I’ve definitely noticed a difference in the dreaded “love handles” area which is the #1 reason I’m doing it and it motivates me to continue.

The bad news is I’m absolutely awful when it comes to eating healthier.  I can do it in bursts, but eventually my craving for fatty fast food or breakfast sweets gets to me.   Today I got up, worked out, ate a single bowl of oatmeal and then drank a Naked Juice on my way to work.  Awesome breakfast.   Then by 9:30 a.m. I was so hungry I went across the street and grabbed a Starbucks Frappuccino and a bag of sugar cookies    WTF???

Finally, I realized the other day that January was right around the corner!  Oh oh!  Does that mean I’m giving up the ol’ “juice” again for the month?  I’m not sure yet.  But I have a sneaking suspicion I might in an effort to continue to trim up the ol’ bod.  Yikes.

Upon Further Review… Belichick Got it Right… and the NFL Continues to get it Wrong

Bill Belichick will be second-guessed forever

If you’re a football fan, heck, even if you’re NOT a football fan, you’ve probably heard more about Patriot Coach Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4th down from his own 29 against the Colts Sunday night than you care to.  He’s generally getting hammered for it but the argument against him is mostly first level thinking… and it also obscures what I think should have been the MUCH bigger issue coming out of that Sunday night game.  

We’ll get to that in a minute, but first let’s deal with the decision to go for it.   Most people seem to think it’s a simple matter of “You don’t go for it on 4th down in your own territory.”  That’s the extent of the argument.  Period.  But it’s not nearly that simple. 

I think we can all agree that the purpose of the exercise in this spot is to win the game.  Right?  I mean, no matter what happens from here on out the goal for the Patriots is to win the game.   Let’s do some simple math then to determine the best way to go about doing that.

1)  What percentage of the time do the Patriots get the first down?  I’ve heard some estimate 2/3 of the time, or 67% ish.  Let’s say that’s a little high, let’s go with 60%. 

2)  What percentage of the time the Patriots don’t get the first down do the Colts score from the Pats 29-yard-line?  A ton, right?  Like, let’s say 90%.  I think that might be a little high… but I’m not even sure.  So in other words, of the 40% of the time the Pats fail to get the first down, 10% of that time they’ll stop the Colts and still win anyway, so an additional 4% total (10% of 40%).

3)  Now, let’s suppose the Patriots decide to punt, giving the Colts the ball at their own 30 (40 yard net punt) with two minutes remaining.  What percentage of the time do Peyton Manning and the Colts drive for the winning TD?  Well, they’ve scored two TDs already in the 4th, the Pats defense looks a big gassed and Manning is very good in this situation.   So what, 40%?  That seems like as low as it should go right?   That means that 60% of the time, the Pats will win by punting.

So, we’ve just decided that if the Patriots go for it on 4th down they’ll win 64% of the time (60% of the time get it, 4% of the time stop Colts anyway) and if they punt they’ll win 60% of the time (the other 40% of the time the Colts drive down for the game-winning TD.)

Well, 64% > 60% yes?  Again, throw your preconceived notions about when you do/don’t go for it on 4th down.  The exercise here is to find the best way to win the game.  It seems to me at a minimum it’s a breakeven proposition.  If anything, the percentage of time the Colts score from the Pats 29 is probably a little lower than 90% and the chances they score from their own 30 is probably a touch higher than 40%, which would combine to make going for it the even better call. 

EDIT:  Gregg Easterbrook takes up this argument in his excellent TMQ column on ESPN.com

Now that it’s been discussed ad nauseum (and I’ve ended the discussion with my math above :p) let’s move to the more important issue that should come out of that dramatic finish:

The NFL replay system is woefully broken. 

For years I’ve been saying the college system (booth replay officials who essentially review everything without coaches challenges) has it right.  They buzz the referee when they want to look at something and by the time the ref gets to the sideline they typically have a decision and we’re moving forward.  The NFL replay system causes massive delays in which tons of time is wasted before the referee even gets to the hood to START reviewing the play. 

But what’s really awful is that in many NFL games, we actually get to a point in the game, crunch time, the most important part of the game, when the coaches CAN’T challenge because they’ve either run out of challenges or don’t have any timeouts.  This is ridiculous.  And this game was a prime example.

On the 4th down play (if you’re reading this, I’m assuming you’ve seen it multiple times), Tom Brady stuck his pass into the hands of Kevin Faulk at about the 30.5 yard line, a .5 yard ahead of the first down marker.   Faulk immediately gets hit and juggles the ball for a brief moment before securing it and being knocked backward to about the 29 (a yard SHORT of the first down marker).  The official spots the ball at the 29, saying despite his forward momentum being stopped at the 30.5, he didn’t truly secure the ball until he fell at the 29. 

Well, if you watch the replay, two things become readily apparent.

1. Kevin Faulk did indeed juggle the ball briefly.
2. He secured it long before he fell to the ground at the 29.

I mean, this is the play of all plays in the game.  If he got to the 30, it’s a first down and the Pats win, closing the gap in the race for home field in the post-season between them and the Colts to one game.  If he didn’t, the Pats turn it over on downs and the Colts win, extending their record to 9-0 and essentially guaranteeing any future post-season match-up with the Pats will happen in Indy.  Everything rests on this decision.  So let’s review it!

Oh wait.  It’s outside the 2:00 mark so it’s not an automatic review.  And Bill Belichick has no timeouts left (a coaching blunder for sure) so he can’t challenge it.  Oops.  Oh well. 

WHAAAAAAAT?  How can no one have a problem with that?  How can anyone say “Oh well, them’s the breaks!”

If it was the college system, they would’ve reviewed it, gotten it right and moved on.  But in the NFL, nope, no review!  Now honestly, having seen the angles I have, it would’ve been a crazy close call.  I’m not sure if Faulk got it… in fact, I don’t think he did… but that’s irrelevant.  It had to be reviewed.

It’s a system that not only gets things wrong at the end of the game, but forces coaches to make awkward decisions during earlier part of the game.  Do you want to burn a challenge on a first half call that the officials badly butchered?  It should be a no-brainer yes, but with this system you have to take into account the possibility that you’ll need that challenge later.  That should never be a consideration when faced with a clearly bad call.

So we can argue about whether Bill Belichick got his call right or not… but I know for sure the NFL continues to get the replay idea wrong.

This is One Dangerous Family!

(Pics to come soon!)

Saturday was the National Karate tournament out in Roselle and the Capriolo family made quite the showing! 

Zalen is only his second tournament finished 3rd in basics in his belt/age group.  Sky was beaming with pride watching her curly-haired go through his routine and we gave each other a look when the judges scores put Zalen in 1st place!   Two kids later managed to pass him but he did a great job.

Sidra was a bundle of nerves for her sparring tournament.  There was a bit of chaos in her belt group and after winning her first match in sudden death overtime, she was matched up against a girl about a foot taller than she was.  Trying to cope with the reach disadvantage, Sidra fell behind 4-0 (first to 5 wins) and then delivered the hardest kick I’ve ever seen her deliver (karate, soccer or otherwise) to pull within 4-2 (Sidra later told me she was very angry because she was losing!) and two points later she had tied it at 4!   She ended up losing in a dramatic final point and was very upset (Sidra does NOT like to lose!) but several black belts came up to her afterward and told her how great she did. 

As it turned out, they had decided to divide the girls up by height as well as belt/age, but there was some confusion.  Later the guy organizing that particular group told me he was really impressed with Sidra’s fight against the taller girl and wasn’t sure how he was going to handle it if she had won!   Anyway, they ended up giving Sidra a first place for her “height division.”  In general, this tournament is more about encouragement and kudos than actual competition so that’s a good thing.  I’m curious to see, however, how Sidra will handle a competitive tournament like Diamond Nationals.  Again, not the best at handling losing

Sidra also took second in her age group (this time no dividing up for height this time!) for form. 

Meanwhile, Sky won her belt group for sparring as well, avenging a loss to her good friend Gianna from last tournament.   Unfortunately Sky and Sidra were sparring at the same time in separate rings so while I caught all of Sky’s first match and Sidra’s two matches, I missed the back end of Sky’s last match.   Nevertheless, quite an impressive showing by all!!!

Zalen Earns His Bobcat

The Tiger Cubs present the colors

Zalen wears the blue and yellow Cub Scout face paint

Zalen shows off his new Bobcat Badge

Newly-minted Bobcat Badge recipients Zalen and Patrick

Pack 496 poses for a picture

Ho ho ho! Merry Bobcat!

Congratulations to Zalen who earned his first major Cub Scout patch last night, the Bobcat Badge!   He had to memorize the Cub Scout promise, motto, law of the pack… sign, salute, handshake… all that good stuff. 

So there was a little ceremony at Pack night with Zalen and his fellow Tiger Cubs receiving their badges and their “Akelas” (family leaders) earning their own ribbon and pin!   They painted the boys’ faces with blue and yellow… and then we had to quickly wash their faces for den and pack pictures.   Oh!  The Tiger Cubs also presented the colors before and after Pack Night.  I’m very proud of Zalen, he really seems to be enjoying scouts and embracing it.  It really wasn’t my thing at all but he loves it.

At the end of the night there was a bake auction and Zalen snagged the chocolate cupcakes he coveted.  They also made the boys up as Santa Claus (I’m not sure why) and Zalen looked hilarious!

Here Come the Hawks!

We went to the Blackhawks game with Vince Vaughn last night. Okay, not really "with" him... But he was there!

I got to my first Blackhawks game last night, heading to the United Center with my buddies Kevin, Lawrence and Dave (thanks Adam!).   We actually started the night at WestEnd, a bar down the street from the UC… where we had a couple of beers and pizza (thumbs up on both accounts!).  We were smart enough to get there a little before 5:00pm when there was no one there… by the time we left for the game it was wall-to-wall people. 

The pre-game was pretty awesome.  It was Bobby Hull Heritage Night so the Golden Jet was there to be honored… as is always the case, the UC scoreboard guys did a great job with their montage.  In addition, with it being Veterans Day, the always amazing National Anthem had some extra punch to it.   Experiencing the National Anthem at a Blackhawks game is one of those “bucket list” things for a true sports fan, goosebumps guaranteed every time. 

We got an added bonus when three guys arrived just before game time to sit in front of us and one of them immediately offered to buy us all beers!  I think Law said his name was Will.  Thanks Will!

Midway through the first period, Vince Vaughn came ambling down the stairs to his on-the-glass front row seats behind the goal.  It was pretty entertaining to watch him get mobbed during stoppages in play for pictures and autographs. 

Also, during the game, a couple of young ladies sat next to Dave.  I wouldn’t mention this except during the second intermission the Blackhawks do a promotion in which they bring out three fans (almost invariably a young kid, an older guy and an attractive woman) to shoot at the goal to win prizes.  Turns out the attractive woman was Caitlyn, the girl sitting next to Dave!  She came back afterward (she failed miserably) and got into it with Lawrence who, of course, wasn’t shy about telling her how awful she was out there.  Awesome.

The game itself was top notch stuff.  The Avalanche jumped out to a 1-0 lead and then Patrick Kane tied it with a goal on a disgusting angle.  Colorado grabbed a 2-1 lead in the 2nd but the Blackhawks equalized in the 3rd.  The Blackhawks absolutely dominated the final five minutes of the 3rd and the 5-minute OT but couldn’t light the lamp so it went to a shootout.

Now shoot-outs aren’t the best way in the world to decide a winner (thankfully the NHL does away with this in the post-season), but Blackhawks fans have to love the fact that they can trot out Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Patrick Sharp.  Toews and Sharp both scored and that was enough to get the shootout win!

There’s really nothing like live NHL hockey, such a great experience everytime.

WSOP Final Table Doesn’t Help Online Poker’s Cause

Joe Cada will be a great ambassador for poker. His Main Event win, however, isn't likely to help the online cause.

This past week, Joe Cada became the World Series of Poker Main Event Champion by winning a high-energy, incredibly exciting final table.  There was amazing drama, twists and turns everywhere and the ESPN broadcast, a 2.5 hour version cut down from the actual 22+ hours, was great fun to watch.  However, it might not have been the best thing for poker, in terms of the ongoing battle to legalize the online game here in the U.S.

All across the country, court cases regarding the legal status of online poker are popping up and they ALL seem to hinge on the very simple question of whether it’s a game of skill or luck.  The problem is the courts hearing these cases are typically made up of people who don’t play poker, at least not like we’re talking about here (i.e. online, in some cases for hundreds of thousands of dollars.)

 

So if I were a congressman… or attorney… or whatever… arguing that poker is a game of luck, here’s what I would do.  I would take the Main Event final table and edit it down. I would then present to the court that this is poker at it’s best.  This is their crown jewel event.  It’s their Super Bowl, their World Cup, their, well, World Series.  Then I would show these series of clips:

 

• Kevin Schaffel gets eliminated 8th when he shoves all of chips into the middle pre-flop (skill ftw!) with AA against KK.  Mr. Schaffel is an 82%-18% favorite to win the hand.  He does not.
•  
• Phil Ivey gets eliminated 7th when he shoves all of his chips into the middle pre-flop (skill ftw!) with AK against AQ.  Mr. Ivey is a 70%-30% favorite to win the hand.  He does not.
•  
• Steven Begleiter gets eliminated 6th when he shoves all of his chips into the middle pre-flop (skill ftw!) with QQ against AQ.  Mr. Begleiter is a 70% – 30% favorite to win the hand.  He does not.
•  
• Jeff Shulman was eliminated 5th.  First, he shoves all of his chips into the middle pre-flop (skill ftw!) with JJ against 33.  Mr. Shulman is a 80%-20% favorite to win the hand.  He does not.  He then gets the remainder of his chips in pre-flop (skill ftw!) with 77 against A9.  Mr. Shulman is in what poker players refer to as a “coin flip” and he loses this “coin flip” and is eliminated.  (skill ftw!)
•  
• Eric Buchman gets eliminated 4th when he shoves all of his chips into the middle pre-flop (skill ftw!) with A5 against KJ.  Mr. Buchman is a 54%-45% favorite (very close to the aforementioned coinflip) to win the hand.  He does not.
•  
• Antonie Sauot was eliminated 3rd.  First, he shoves all of his chips into the middle pre-flop (skill ftw!) with QQ against 22.  Mr. Sauot is a 80%-20% favorite to win the hand.  He does not.  He then gets the remainder of his chips in pre-flop (skill ftw!) with 88 against AK.  Mr. Sauot is in what poker players refer to, once again, as a “coin flip” and he loses this “coin flip” and is eliminated. (skill ftw!)
•  
• Finally, the championship, the biggest in the sport, was decided when Joe Cada shoved all of his chips in the middle pre-flop (skill ftw!) with 99 and Darvin Moon called with QJ (skill ftw!).  One final time we have a “coinflip.”  Mr. Cada wins this “coin-flip” and he is now the champion of poker.
• SKILL FOR THE WIN!  (NOT)

For what it’s worth, I obviously believe poker is a game of skill… and honestly I don’t even really think it’s a question.  But others out there don’t agree… and this year’s final table certainly didn’t do anything to change their mind.

Home Game: Playing AA on a Short Stack

The second hand I want to discuss came a bit later in the home game after I had hit a bit of a rough patch.  I lost a couple of small pots and then lost a decent chunk when I got priced in to short-stack shove and lost a race.  So I was sitting on a little less than 150 and blinds had elevated to the 5/10 mark, so I was getting pretty short.

Two folds to Lou, a player similar to myself, relatively tight but smart enough to make a move occasionally.  He put in a raise to 35 (he was sitting on close to 300 at the time I believe) and I looked down at AA.

Typically, this is a virtual auto 3-bet for me.  There are still six players left to act behind me so a smooth call could cause an avalanche of calls behind me, shrinking my currently dominant chances of winning the pot.  On the flip side, there really weren’t a lot of raising options.  Any raise would be committing me to the pot (even a min-raise to 70 would mean dumping almost 50% of my chips in) and Lou would obviously see that.   I could jam all-in and hope to look weak, but I’m probably not getting a call from anything but a premium hand and I’d like to give him a chance to catch up.  Finally, Lou’s a pretty aggressive player.  The odds of him c-betting were pretty high.

Finally, I decided that given my short stack and the elevating blinds, I had to roll the dice here to try and win a big pot and just called.   The players behind me all folded to the big blind who, after looking conflicted for a bit, also decided to come along and tossed in the additional chips for the call.

The flop came out 6-6-4 with two spades, which generally has to be a pretty good flop for me.   The BB checked and sure enough here comes Lou with 70 chips. 

“All-in” I responded and was a little nervous to see the big blind look down at his chip stack and think for a bit.  Finally he let his cards go and it was back to Lou.  Now, I think my all-in was no more than 40 chips or so… but Lou sadly turned up his 10-7 full on bluff and tossed them into the muck.   Wow.

Key point?  While 3-betting w/AA is almost never a bad play, in this case I maximized my hand by flat calling and taking a chance.  If I 3-bet, I fold out the big blind (he later said he had K-x of spades and flopped the flush draw) and Lou probably lays down his 10-7 as well.  In that scenario I win 50 chips (Lou’s 35 + the blinds) but by flat calling I end up winning 145 chips!  (Lou’s 35 pre-flop raise + Lou’s 70 c-bet + big blind’s 35 + small blind of 5).

Home Game: Exploiting a Tight Image

Monday night we hosted our EGVSOP (Elk Grove Village Series of Poker) home game for the first time in several weeks (we tend to have a lull in the fall when softball and other activities are ongoing) so it was nice to play a little live poker with friends again.  Combined with the WSOP conclusion, I’m feeling the itch again to get moving on my poker game a little bit, if I can find the time.  There were two hands I wanted to blog about as I kind of re-build my game from the ground floor up.

I’m a relatively tight-aggressive player.  Like a lot of home games I’m sure, my game is populated with a fair number of players who like to limp to see flops… I very rarely limp into a pot, instead preferring a raise-or-fold philosophy, so the result is I look tighter than I probably even am.  While others splash around, I do a lot of folding and waiting.

For that reason, I tend to show bluffs and semi-bluffs a bit.  Online I never show my cards, having the “auto-fold” option checked.   But in this game, where I play against the same players over and over and over, it’s a decent idea to at least put in their mind that I might not be as tight as they think.  In reality, I probably am.   But like any good tight-aggressive player I try and take advantage of that image and shift gears occasionally.

Monday night, we were still in the first rotation so everyone’s starting stacks were all pretty similar (we start with 200 chip and 1/2 blinds) and after four folds in front of me, I looked down at 2-7 offsuit.

Stop.  Hammer time.

I paused for a bit and then put in a raise to 7.  I got folds to the button where my Sky stared me down.  There’s probably no one I’ve shown more bluffs to than her so her image of me is completely and utterly confused.  She knows I’m a tight player but also knows I get a kick out of “outplaying” people (perhaps especially her) so it wasn’t a big surprise when she put in the call.  The SB also called and the BB got out of the way.

The flop came a A-J-J.  That ace is bad for me.  But that paired board gave me a scare tactic to take advantage of.  So when the SB checked, I led out.

“What do you have?”  Sky asked.  She paused a bit and then said to no one in particular.  “I have an ace.  What does he have.”

I obviously didn’t want to hear that and figured I was done with the hand if I she called.  But after another minute or so, she mucked!   The SBs cards followed right behind.

I flipped up my 2-7 and raked the pot.

“Dammit!” Sky banged the table.  “I knew it!”

But she DIDN’T know it and that’s the point.  My tight image helped.  But the fact that she couldn’t figure out if  I was strong (she said she had A-10 meaning any good ace had her beat and obviously any J) or full of it was the real key and led to a conservative fold.

Baseball’s Big Market Slight of Hand

Great article by Joe Posnanski regarding the New York Yankees and the big market inequities in baseball.

An “Any Given Sunday” Adjustment

Raheem Morris's "Any Given Sunday" came this weekend

“Any Given Sunday…”

The phrase is so well known among NFL fans that it’s been reduced to those three words. In full, it’s something like…

“On any given sunday, any team can beat any other team…”

Well, while technically that’s true (in terms of one team winning a game against a team they probably shouldn’t), the truth is in today’s NFL it should probably read more like this:

“On any given Sunday, any team (besides apparently the New Orleans Saints) is capable of beating itself, even against the worst teams in the league.”

There is no better example of that than what happened this weekend in south Florida.  That’s where the 4-3 Green Bay Packers traveled to play the NFL’s only winless team, the woeful, awful Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The Packers are like the majority of NFL teams out there, good enough to beat up on the handful of really bad teams, not good enough to take down the NFL’s elite.  Their success this season or lack thereof will be determined by how they perform in games against those other middle-of-the-road teams… and by their ability to not stub their toe against the awful teams.

Oops.

This Sunday the Packers turned in a recipe for “How to lose to a horrible, awful team.”  Take a look.  In this game the Packers:

• Had a punt blocked and returned for a touchdown
• Had a pass intercepted and returned for a touchdown
• Had another pass intercepted and returned to their own 8-yard-line (which immediately led to a touchdown)
• Gave up an 83-yard kickoff return (which immediately led to a touchdown)

Or, to look at it in another way, the Packers gift-wrapped 28 POINTS to the worst team in the league.  In fact, in giving up those 28 points they actually only gave up 25 offensive yards!!  The Buccaneers 279 total yards was the 3rd lowest total in the NFL this weekend… and the fact that they still needed a late 4th-down conversion and another defensive stop to ice the game after all of this highlights how far they still have to go.  Nevertheless yesterday they got to celebrate winning their first game of the season.. although it’s probably much better defined as a Packer LOSS.

But you know how it goes, any given sunday…